Men's Pro Series - who's most likely to win the $200,000?

As we all know, this is the first year of the Pro Series and there’s a lot on offer… 200,000 dollars for first place and 1.7 million dollars overall between the men and the women.

However, so far, the “Every second matters” point scoring system, as intriguing as it is, hasn’t given us much context as to who might end up the champion of the series, as athletes have raced differing numbers of total races as well as a different mixture of halves and full distance races - which offer completely different points (5,000 for a full, 2,500 for a half).

On top of this, a lot of athletes at these races aren’t even competing for the pro series, still find themselves picking up top points, such as Lionel Sanders and Ellie Salthouse.

So here’s some context to help you see who’s doing well, and remember it’s a maximum of three fulls and a minimum of two 70.3'sthat go into the final score + the World Championships are worth extra - 6,000 points in Nice/Kona, and 3,000 points in Taupo.

- A perfect score, winning every race, would land you at 21,500 points -

So, for the men, Matt Hanson is currently ranked first due to his participation in three Ironman (IM) and two 70.3 races. Although he's qualified for both Kona and Taupo, his score may not improve significantly compared to those who have yet to race three IMs.

For instance, if Hanson scores 4,836 at Kona, his overall score would only increase by 1,000 points, since his weakest IM score is 3,836. A score of 4,836, while not exceptional, surpasses what he would have earned with his best Kona results in 2022, where he trailed Iden by over 24 minutes, earning only 4,129 points. The same challenge applies to Taupo, where improving his Boulder score against a stronger field may be difficult.

Conversely, Marquardt, currently ranked ninth, has achieved his position with just three strong scores - two Ironmans and one 70.3. He has only dropped 644 points across those races with a second at Lake Placid, a third at Mont-Tremblant, and a fourth at Ironman Texas.

Even if he had a second 70.3 score at this time, a mere 1,500 points would be enough to propel him to the top of the ranks for those who currently only have two Ironmans and two 70.3s, namely Patrick Lange, Bradley Weiss, and Arnaud Guilloux. His second 70.3 however, will have to wait until December for 70.3 worlds in Taupo, where all those in contention for the series will be fighting to perform.

First up for Marquardt though will be Kona, where his swim-biker profile allows him to gain time on competitors and capitalize on a strong field, potentially distancing himself before his weaker, but still strong, run. Even though it is his first time racing here as a professional, Marquardt won on the island as an age grouper and was 11th last year at arguably a course less suited to him in Nice last year.

Marquardt, then, is the clear favorite for the win, but it is Gregory Barnaby and Hogenhaug who are closest to vying for second and third place. Both are qualified for Taupo and have demonstrated solid performances at the middle distance. This has been a decisive reason why Patrick Lange has not excelled as much in the series as many would have expected. His 70.3’s have cost him many points, and on top of that, means he hasn’t secured an all-important qualification to race in Taupo - where the points are higher. Despite this, prowess in Kona could still see him leap back into contention.

So then, Lange, Guilloux (also not Taupo qualified), Hanson, and Weiss are primed to finish fourth through seventh - which is still $70,000 - $30,000 dollars in Prize money. If Lange and Guilloux have good races in Kona, they could be tempted along with others to race the final 70.3 Pro Series race outside the World Championship in Busselton… which might compensate for their weaker 70.3 performances. Weiss and Hanson have the upper hand being qualified for Taupo, but they will be up against a far stronger field that could put the extra 500 points worth of time into them at that race.

Currie, despite a poor result at Frankfurt, could enhance his 70.3 scores at Taupo, a local race for him. He might also compete at 70.3 Western Australia, which is geographically favorable compared to other contenders. Currie and Lange are also among the few who have secured top-seven finishes at Kona (2018 and 2019).

Kallin and Leiferman then are expected to finish in the top ten. Otherwise, Foley, Sanders, and Blummenfelt (who wouldn’t be able to complete 5 pro series races by the end of the year) would need exceptional performances at both Kona and Taupo to break into the top ten (and some bad ones from their competitors. Also, unlike Marquardt, Foley and Sanders typically start from the back, which could hinder their chances. The last Kona winner to succeed from behind was Kienle in 2014.

Final Predictions then for the series: Marquardt, Banaby, Hogenhaug, Lange, Guilloux, Hanson, Weiss, Currie, Kallin, and Leiferman.