Women's Pro Series - who's most likely to win the $200,000?

As we all know, this is the first year of the Pro Series and there’s a lot on offer… 200,000 dollars for first place and 1.7 million dollars overall between the men and the women.

However, so far, the “Every second matters” point scoring system, as intriguing as it is, hasn’t given us much context as to who might end up the champion of the series, as athletes have raced differing numbers of total races as well as a different mixture of halves and full distance races - which offer completely different points (5,000 for a full, 2,500 for a half).

On top of this, a lot of athletes at these races aren’t even competing for the pro series, still find themselves picking up top points, such as Lionel Sanders and Ellie Salthouse.

So here’s some context to help you see who’s doing well, and remember it’s a maximum of three fulls and a minimum of two 70.3'sthat go into the final score + the World Championships are worth extra - 6,000 points in Nice/Kona, and 3,000 points in Taupo.

- A perfect score, winning every race, would land you at 21,500 points -

This one is a little more clear-cut than the men's. It is basically, bar disaster, a race between just a couple of women for the first-ever Pro Series title. But who will likely come out on top, and who will secure the lion's share of the bonus money?

Right now, the top of the standings belongs to Jackie Hering thanks to a marvelous win at Ironman Hamburg and second place at Ironman Lake Placid. Her second and third at Ironman 70.3 Chattanooga and St.George, didn't lose her many points either. Even if she fails to have a good performance at Taupo (last year she finished 20 minutes back of Taylor Knibb), she still has those results to fall back on.

That means if she finishes within 15 minutes of the top woman at Nice, she will still end the series with at least 19,597 points out of the possible 21,500.

If you put all the other women on the same level playing ground of just two Ironmans and two 70.3s, then Danielle Lewis falls to fourth with 12,331 points - 2,000 points behind Hering. Els Visser and Maja Stage Nielsen would be slightly closer to Hering, but similarly almost 2,000 points behind.

Behind them though, reveals Hering's biggest competitor, Kat Matthews. She only has three races banked right now, but they're almost perfect. Her win in Vittoria-Gasteiz and Texas, alongside a second place at 70.3 Tallinn saw her pick up 12,321 points out of 12,500.

Kat is being predicted by many to finish much higher than Hering at both the Nice World Championship as well as in Taupo. Last year, Matthews finished 17 minutes ahead of Hering at the 70.3 World Championships (1020 points). However, she did DNF at Kona during the world champs.. so she'll be desperately hoping that luck is behind her. If she finishes within 5 minutes of the leaders in Nice and Taupo, she'll finish with a near-perfect score of 20,721 out of the possible 21,500.

However, like the men, the race for those remaining big payout places between third through seventh is extremely tight. Lewis, Visser, Nielsen, and Alberts look poised to take them. All of these women have produced excellent results over the full distance this year, but the Nice course is a complete unknown - and if the men's race in 2023 told us anything - there could be some massive time-gaps, which translates into massive points lost. See the gap below between 1st and 10th place.

But there is a strong group of women, who, like Kat, have only tallied three scores or less at this point and could make some massive leaps in the next races. The likes of Hannah Berry, Fenella Langridge, Penny Slater, Daniela Bleymehl, and Lotte Wilms could still easily be in the hunt for those top spots with great performances, but there'll likely be no room for error.

Wilms and Berry will also have to race 70.3 Western Australia before 70.3 world's in Taupo while Slater unfortunately didn't pick up qualification in time to race in Taupo and will be one 70.3 score short in the final scoring.

Berry could be the dark horse here for third place in the standings if all things go well. She has one of the stronger 70.3 pedigrees, which will most likely be a deciding factor between many of these women in Taupo. Danielle Lewis and Fenella Langridge similarly find themselves performing well at the distance.

Thus, with all that said, our predictions for the Top 5 of the final standings: Kat Matthews, Jackie Hering, Hannah Berry, Danielle Lewis, and Alice Alberts